Feeding an addiction to number-crunching

Welcome to ‘In A Pickle’ where I’ll be posting situations fantasy coaches might be in after the previous round, and evaluating options. Deciding after analysis of course, I will determine which option I think best to solve this pickle. Hope you enjoy it 😉

Alex.

Port forward Robbie Gray is set to miss Port’s round 2 clash against West Coast, it’s also been rumored he could miss the next 2 round after this as well.

Robbies hamstring is back-related as well, meaning it could take surgery before the little niggling injuries go away, as these ones tend to stick around.

15, 628 coaches started the year with Gray, leaving all of these coaches with a big choice to make early in the season. A lot of coaches will wait another week to see how he holds up, and if he’s still due to miss another couple, he’ll be traded out.

Luckily, there are a lot of quality picks in the same price bracket as Robbie, with Gia, Franklin, Byrnes, Higgins, Le Cras and Kinghts among players with a similar price tag.

After Shannon Byrnes’ impressive round 1 performance, a lot of fantasy coacheswill be bringing him in. I personally am not a fan of this trade, for me Byrnes is very inconsistent and while he is capable of these kinds of scores, he can also pull out the odd 50, with 7 sub 70 scores from 19 games last year, and 3 matches under 5 along with a score of 51. While with this he did have 3 scores where he topped 120, although this shows we already knew he could score well, without being a gold-rolled premium.

A lot of people will be looking very hard at Shaun Higgins as well, with a score of 104 in an underperforming Bulldogs team who knows what he’ll be doing once the Bulldogs hit their stride. A worry for him is durability, the most games he’s ever played in one season being 20, although the next two in line are 16 and 4. Higgins, no doubt will be scoring well if he’s on the field, but his ability to stay on the field is not as up to scratch as his footy skills. With 9 90+ scores last year and scores of 141, 124 (twice), 124 and 111, and he’s only going to get better. He’s all class and on the verge of having his best season yet.

Le Cras, while being under an injury cloud is also being moved back forward and it’s been said he won’t get midfield time this year, this takes him out of consideration for me.

Gia, despite being disappointing was playing in an underperforming Bullies side, he should be back this week against Richmond this week, with the Flu going through the club also this can also be an excuse for Gia’s unusually low score. Don’t rule him out just yet, with a good score against the Tiges he’ll be right back on my radar.

Next in line, is Hawks big man Buddy franklin, the guys a goal-kicking forward who wt the start of last year started at 570k. No doubt he’s underpriced and he’ll be back this week although don’t be put off if he has a bad score against Geelong this wee, don’t forget Scarlett will take him. He should average highly although beware – If you pick him, you’re in for a rollercoaster ride!

For me I’ll take the improving Higgins in a strong Bulldogs side. He should score well and keep improving this year.

Happy Supercoaching.

Alex.

Here is a list I’ve made of players I think are underpriced and overhyped. There’s a lot of people who have been slipping under the radar over the last few years, but now with no real reason they burst onto the season with unexplained popularity. For example- Matty Boyd, this guy has been a consistent fantasy scorer for years and not been an overly popular pick. Now with a little bit of preseason form he seems to have become a must have. Here i my list along with my number and I hope you enjoy it 😉

Overhyped Players-

Adam Cooney- This guy is a good player, no doubt, I mean he won a Brownlow medal. But consider this- In his brownlow year he averaged 107 Supercoach points, now this is a perfectly good average but when you start to compare it to averages from other players in their Brownlow years it doesn’t seem that flash- Jimmy Bartel averaged 127 in ’07 when he won his Charlie, Ablett last year averaged 140. In 2006 Adam Goodes averaged 121 and in ’05 Cousins averaged 125. All these players easily blitz Cooneys average. So you can take out the factor that he must be underpriced because he won a Brownlow and he is 480k. Now look at this, Cooney averaged 25.5 diposals in ’08, his Brownlow year and 107 SC points. Then last year he averaged 26.8 disposals although he only averaged 91 points, so he averaged more disposals but 16 less points? His effectiveness dropped from 66% to 60%  a 6% drop. After all this I think Cooney has to be overhyped and without much value in him, his highest average outside his Brownlow year is 91. Meaning unless he has another year where he could win a Brownlow, which I find unlikely due to tags, he will not come up much in price.

Lance Franklin- I know I’m probably going to get bagged for this but the guy has way to much hype surrounding him. He is going to miss round 1, and his highest average other than his coleman year (107) is 88. There is an argument that he will get better delivery although what is the proof that he will? He still had 1st tier players delivering him the ball lace-out and he kicked 67 goals. The main problem last year with his scores was the fact that he started to handball much more often going from an average of 3 handballs per game to 6.1. Seeing as he didn’t average more disposals it just meant he kicked less going from an average of 12.3 kicks to 8.9. These stats can be blamed for a lot of his drop in average, assuming he continues to handball his average isn’t going to get that much better either. Another contributing factor is that every man and his dog seems to have him, so if you leave him and he burns out, it could put you ahead of the pack.

Kurt Tippett- This guy is good and on the rise no doubt, but after last year I’ll never go there again, he’s just to inconsistent, he only scored above 80 two games in a row once in the entire season.He could develop as a fey forward but I think with umpires targeting him for faking for the free this year with 38 Frees For last year. With this he may not get very many Frees for although he gave away 37 Frees Against last year meaning if his frees for drop off and his Frees Against stay the same this could impact his scoring.

Now I’ll move on to players I think are underpriced-

Luke Ball- Last year Luke ball averaged 80 minuted of TOG,and averaged 86 SC points. In 2005 he averaged 105 minutes of TOG, he averaged 116 SC points. Last year his scoring was no doubt affected by disappointing TOG and less efficient disposal, only hitting his target half of the time. This year he should improve TOG at least and we can hope hid disposal will get back to what it used  to be. I think that get more clearance this year as well, with better quality ruckmen to feed off in Fraser and Jolly, he should benefit from taps straight down his throat and sometimes can be fed the ball by other players such as Swan and Pendlebury.

David Armitage- The man who will replace him- Armitage. Really we’re lucky David isn’t priced a whole lot more than he is , last yer in his 3 games scoring 127,127 and then a 38 which dragged his average down. Without that 38 he could be quite overpriced but with he is good value. Last year Armitage was given limited opportunities but with Luke Ball gone now he has the chance to break into the Saints’ side and make an impact. He will be eager to play well early and cement his spot in the side so if you want him get him from the start. He was taken at pick 9 so obviously he has the talent and he’s already shown us he can perform at AFL level he just hasn’t been given the proper chance until now to show us what he can really do. He should score very well and I think he is a good option if you are looking for a cheap option to take your 4th midfield position.